Machine Learning: Darmok predicts the grocery bill

A background of the logic of Darmok can be found here. I have taken the logic in the blogpost and using C# I have written a predictive system called Darmok.

Lets look at Charlie Brown’s grocery bill for the las 10 years

	Jan	Feb	Mar	April	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
2008	538	780	1067	602	986	939	900	864	1066	1067	811	755
2009	967	894	960	1094	711	1191	1225	1114	940	1073	935	1350
2010	1019	877	1454	1153	920	1416	1318	708	710	879	1035	775
2011	952	750	886	739	1216	811	676	957	548	712	259	628
2012	672	851	782	451	95	199	542	792	582	501	437	161
2013	83	176	1181	977	912	1028	1173	1242	897	1026	1075	1149
2014	820	1089	750	856	1131	1207	1324	1342	1376	1048	1262	836
2015	859	857	847	925	991	673	1022	1053	779	868	1022	975
2016	851	1015	833	1098	768	834	916	899	923	918	609	915
2017	765	871	868	833	959	995	952	1083	898	652	839	1023

What we want Darmok to do

1. Take the first 5 years 2008-2012 as initial historic data that the Darmok will use to predict.

1. Predict data for each month for years 2013-17 each year you cumulate the history from previous years. Compare your predictions to actual result, this is how the Darmok learns and forms a logic for the data behavior.

Here is the result fed out from Darmok

Predicted
	Jan	Feb	Mar	April	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
2013	906	830	837	611	403	353	553	797	361	399	268	161
2014	382	394	1002	789	614	617	840	1063	582	668	664	629
2015	540	697	843	814	855	865	1079	1256	976	825	978	697
2016	654	758	803	863	923	742	1064	1218	903	828	1037	809
2017	723	866	774	971	866	741	1008	1123	921	853	887	851
2018	734	880	772	934	905	806	985	1132	922	763	880	923

Lets look at the standard deviation which is a measure of the difference between the actual and the predicted.

You see that by year 2017 the StDev is very low and quite stable. Darmok learned from history first and then learned from prediction errors. It helped Darmok create a profile of the event or person and predict better.

Darmok assisting IDM teams

Next we will look how Darmok can help System or Security Operations teams.